Cycling Through the Next Millennium
Wheel Life column - 1 January, 2000
by Todd Litman and Suzanne Kort - Victoria Transport Policy Institute

Good wishes for the new year/decade/century/millennium.

This grand event will surely be described to future generations as, "one of history's greatest anti-climaxes." In one magical moment six billion people emerged into a new year/decade/century/millennium only to find that nothing much has changed.

(Unless of course the Y2K thing ushers in the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it, in which case you won't be reading this column.)

This is an appropriate time to take stock of our hopes and dreams. We'd like to offer a utopian bicycling vision for the next thousand years.

There are two popular archetypes of the future. One is the hi-tech vision of the Jetsons and Star Trek. This future is one huge Wal-Mart shopping spree: sterile plastic furniture, polyester clothes, and cool-looking but often useless gadgets. Travel consists of elevators and spaceships. Bicycles are absent because they require physical effort, and in this future progress means satisfying the deep human desire for sloth.

At the other extreme is the back-to-the-land-due-to-human-induced-disaster portrayed in apocalyptic movies such as Mad Max and Planet of the Apes. The few lucky survivors live a dirty, unpleasant existence, using primitive tools made of wood and stone. Transportation consists of walking, with a few motor vehicles, but never bicycles because wood and stones are such poor frame building materials.

These futures seem pretty undesirable. The future we want is rich not in consumer goods or interplanetary travel, but in creativity, security and wisdom. Our utopia doesn't require new technologies or facilities, just modest material wealth and continual improvements to the human environment. For us, cycling nirvana means better streets and more considerate drivers, not new frame materials or drivetrains.

Creating a bicycle utopia is technically easy but requires changing many entrenched practices. Our transportation system, and much of our economy, is misguided by the assumption that growth is good. In fact, the economic principle of "diminishing returns" means that excessive growth is harmful overall. In the natural world, cells that grow unrestrained are germs and cancers.

Excessive growth spoils the very benefits it is supposed to provide. Once everybody owns a car, traffic congestion slows everybody down. Urban sprawl degrades the amenities people move to the countryside to enjoy. Larger highways soon fill with traffic and destinations becomes more dispersed, requiring even more driving and even larger roads.

Materialistic growth can spoil our individual lives too. It means that we are never content because there is always another gadget to purchase. It means always rushing, competing, and labouring to purchase more and more.

Sustainable economics recognizes that many things people need and value are not reflected in conventional market indicators. A sustainable economy shifts our goal from "growth" to "development," that is, using resources more efficiently. To use a popular management cliché, sustainable development means "working smarter, not harder."

Sustainable development requires a balanced transportation system that offers viable travel choices. Rather than encouraging continued travel growth, sustainable transportation encourages people to use each mode for what it does best.

Sustainable transportation rewards people for using the most economically efficient option for each trip. Many trips currently made by car would be made by cycling, walking, transit, or the Internet in a more sustainable transportation system.

Sustainable transportation requires livable communities, where services are available within convenient walking and cycling distance of our homes, and residents have opportunities to get to know their neighbors. Streets are friendly, safe places with more pedestrians and cyclists than cars, where adults and children can play.
(For more information see the paper "Issues in Sustainable Transportation" at our website: http://www.vtpi.org.)

The future we want includes walking through healthy forests and cycling on quiet roads. Air and water are clean, and wildlife habitat are preserved. Our lives are productive but unharried. Creativity, cooperation and generosity are valued. Our days are filled with countless small pleasures and little adventures that result from constantly exploring, experiencing and enjoying our world.

So here's wishing you and your descendants vibrant health, modest wealth and abundant wisdom, with lots of opportunities to cycle, walk and play.